QUICK LINKS
Boston4-1Celtics–
3:30 PM ETKia Center
Orlando2-3Magic–
Brooklyn0-5Nets–
5:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse
Indiana2-4Pacers–
LA1-4Clippers–
8:30 PM ETChase Center
Golden State3-3Warriors–
Toronto3-2Raptors–
9:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena
Los Angeles4-2Lakers–
⭐ Projected Winners (3)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
BOS ★BOS @ ORL · 3:30 PM ETmarket 69%; model 70%
69%win prob
IND —BKN @ IND · 5:00 PM ETmarket 60%; model 60%
60%win prob
LAL —TOR @ LAL · 9:00 PM ETmarket 63%
56%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Darius Garland o2.5 3PM LAC @ GSW
Soft vs PG all season (#29) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 5 of 10
Over in 5 of the last 10 games
2
Scottie Barnes o1.5 3PM TOR @ LAL
Soft vs PF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
3
Paul George o2.5 3PM BOS @ ORL
Soft vs SG all season (#26) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 8 of 10
Over in 8 of the last 10 games
4
Jordan Walsh o4.5 PTS BOS @ ORL
Soft vs PF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 4.6 FGA L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
5
Desmond Bane o4.5 REB BOS @ ORL
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
6
Julius Randle o5.5 AST BKN @ IND
Soft vs PF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
7
Darius Garland o2.5 REB LAC @ GSW
Soft vs PG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
8
Pascal Siakam o1.5 3PM BKN @ IND
Soft vs PF all season (#28) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Payton Pritchard AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Neemias Queta AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Sam Hauser STL - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Mitchell Robinson AST - rest/injury risk (RotoWire)
⏳ Baylor Scheierman 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Devin Carter AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
+65 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Collin Sexton o9.5 PTS LAL vs TOR
5/5Last 5
Collin Sexton o1.5 REB LAL vs TOR
5/5Last 5
Obi Toppin o1.5 AST IND vs BKN
5/5Last 5
Jay Huff o1.5 AST IND vs BKN
5/5Last 5
Desmond Bane o0.5 STL ORL vs BOS
5/5Last 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. o1 STL IND vs BKN
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 46-29 · 61%＋
46-29 graded61% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
6-3 67%
70 to 79%
21-14 60%
60 to 69%
15-10 60%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryn Peterson | Under 14.5 PTS | 65% | 16 | Miss |
| Cameron Boozer | Over 8.5 REB | 71.4% | 9 | Hit |
| Meleek Thomas | Over 6.5 PTS | 70% | 13 | Hit |
| Tyrese Maxey | Under 28.5 PTS | 65% | 38 | Miss |
| Brandon Miller | Under 27.5 PTS | 65% | 24 | Hit |
| VJ Edgecombe | Under 16.5 PTS | 65% | 10 | Hit |
| Josh Giddey | Over 10.5 PTS | 76.5% | 13 | Hit |
| Mitchell Robinson | Over 6.5 REB | 74.8% | 4 | Miss |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.