QUICK LINKS
Portland4-1Trail Blazers112
FinalDelta Center
Utah1-5Jazz90
Philadelphia6-1 B2B76ers–
6:00 PM ETSpectrum Center
Charlotte3-4 B2BHornets–
Atlanta3-4Hawks–
7:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center
New Orleans2-4Pelicans–
Sacramento0-6Kings–
8:00 PM ETFedExForum
Memphis6-0Grizzlies–
Cleveland4-2Cavaliers–
8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum
Milwaukee1-5Bucks–
Minnesota4-3 B2BTimberwolves–
8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center
San Antonio4-2Spurs–
Oklahoma City4-2Thunder–
8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)
Houston6-1 B2BRockets–
⭐ Projected Winners (5)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
CLE ★CLE @ MIL · 8:00 PM ETmarket 76%; model 74%
75%win prob
POR ★POR @ UTA · 3:00 PM ETmarket 73%; model 75%
74%win prob
MEM ★SAC @ MEM · 8:00 PM ETmarket 75%; model 72%
74%win prob
SAS ★MIN @ SAS · 8:00 PM ETmarket 82%; MIN on back-to-back
68%win prob
ATL —ATL @ NOP · 7:00 PM ETmodel 66%; market 64%
65%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Jaxson Hayes o0 3PM POR @ UTA
Soft vs C all season (#28) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
2
Adem Bona o0 3PM PHI @ CHA
Soft vs C all season (#27) + L7 (#27) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
3
Kevin Durant o1.5 3PM OKC @ HOU
Soft vs SF all season (#28) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 8 of 10
Over in 8 of the last 10 games
4
Myles Turner o1.5 3PM CLE @ MIL
Soft vs C all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
5
CJ McCollum o2.5 3PM ATL @ NOP
Soft vs PG all season (#28) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 6 of 10
Over in 6 of the last 10 games
6
Jaylen Wells o1.5 3PM SAC @ MEM
Soft vs SF all season (#27) + L7 (#27) · no potential data · hit 8 of 10
Over in 8 of the last 10 games
7
Scoot Henderson o1.5 3PM POR @ UTA
Soft vs PG all season (#27) + L7 (#27) · no potential data · hit 7 of 10
Over in 7 of the last 10 games
8
Damian Lillard o18.5 PTS POR @ UTA
Soft vs PG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Jrue Holiday REB - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Ja Morant PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Vit Krejci REB - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Robert Williams III 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Branden Carlson 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Yang Hansen 3PM - bench role - minutes not bankable
+92 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Jaylen Brown o17.5 PTS PHI vs CHA
5/5Last 5
Keldon Johnson o9.5 PTS SAS vs MIN
5/5Last 5
Saddiq Bey o12.5 PTS NOP vs ATL
5/5Last 5
Jeremiah Fears o18.5 PTS NOP vs ATL
5/5Last 5
Jabari Smith Jr. o14.5 PTS HOU vs OKC
5/5Last 5
Amen Thompson o16.5 PTS HOU vs OKC
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 42-28 · 60%＋
42-28 graded60% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
6-3 67%
70 to 79%
19-14 58%
60 to 69%
13-9 59%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryn Peterson | Under 14.5 PTS | 65% | 16 | Miss |
| Josh Giddey | Over 10.5 PTS | 76.5% | 13 | Hit |
| Mitchell Robinson | Over 6.5 REB | 74.8% | 4 | Miss |
| Klay Thompson | Over 8.5 PTS | 74.2% | 25 | Hit |
| Larry Nance Jr. | Under 4.5 REB | 83.6% | 5 | Miss |
| Aaron Wiggins | Under 12.5 PTS | 83.3% | 10 | Hit |
| Larry Nance Jr. | Under 4.5 PTS | 78.8% | 5 | Miss |
| Bobby Portis | Under 7.5 REB | 77.9% | 9 | Miss |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.